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R. Zemamra vs Maghreb de Fes Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

R. Zemamra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Maghreb de Fes

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.9%0-123.5%0-213.9%0-35.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.6%1-110.2%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-01.9%2-12.2%2-21.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.3%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.7% 29.4% 3.40 -46.6%

Draw 34.3% 34.7% 2.88 -1.2%

Away win 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 2.5 35.9% 34.7% 2.88 +3.4%

Over 3.5 8.1% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 44.4% 2.25 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob39.6%

A 50% / xG 0.4-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 23.5%

#2 0–0 19.9%

#3 0–2 13.9%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Zemamra0.4

Maghreb de Fes1.2

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 8.1%

Form & verdict PPG

R. ZEMAMRA · PPG 1.00

MAGHREB DE FES · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

R. Zemamra (H) 15.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -46.6%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -1.2%

Maghreb de Fes (A) 50.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Zemamra face Maghreb de Fes in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Zemamra a 16% chance, the draw 34% and Maghreb de Fes 50%, so Maghreb de Fes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for R. Zemamra and 1.2 for Maghreb de Fes (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Zemamra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Maghreb de Fes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-2.

R. Zemamra vs Maghreb de Fes Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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