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Bayern Munich B vs Ansbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Bayern Munich B

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ansbach

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.5%0-22.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.9%1-16.3%1-25.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-16.9%3-25.6%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-18.1%4+-26.6%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 57.1% 1.75 +1.1%

Draw 18.5% 25.0% 4.00 -26.0%

Away win 23.8% 27.8% 3.60 -14.3%

Over 2.5 78.9% 69.0% 1.45 +14.4%

Over 3.5 60.3% 45.5% 2.20 +32.7%

BTTS 74.2% 69.0% 1.45 +7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob74.2%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich B2.6

Ansbach1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH B · PPG 1.93

ANSBACH · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=57.8%

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich B (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +1.1%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -26.0%

Ansbach (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich B face Ansbach in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich B a 58% chance, the draw 19% and Ansbach 24%, so Bayern Munich B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Bayern Munich B and 1.6 for Ansbach (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich B are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.93 for Ansbach. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Bayern Munich B vs Ansbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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