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Aschaffenburg vs Aubstadt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Aschaffenburg

PPG 0.64 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Aubstadt

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+34.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-110.5%0-211.9%0-39.0%0-4+8.6%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.6%1-37.2%1-4+7.0%2 2-01.5%2-13.4%2-23.9%2-32.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.8% 29.9% 3.35 -60.5%

Draw 17.9% 27.8% 3.60 -35.6%

Away win 70.3% 52.4% 1.91 +34.3%

Over 2.5 59.3% 56.5% 1.77 +5.0%

Over 3.5 36.9% 33.3% 3.00 +10.7%

BTTS 49.7% 59.9% 1.67 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob49.7%

A 70% / xG 0.8-2.3 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.9%

#2 0–1 10.5%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–3 9.0%

#5 1–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aschaffenburg0.8

Aubstadt2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASCHAFFENBURG · PPG 0.64

AUBSTADT · PPG 1.57

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Aschaffenburg (H) 11.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -60.5%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -35.6%

Aubstadt (A) 70.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aschaffenburg face Aubstadt in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aschaffenburg a 12% chance, the draw 18% and Aubstadt 70%, so Aubstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Aschaffenburg and 2.3 for Aubstadt (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aschaffenburg are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.57 for Aubstadt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Aschaffenburg vs Aubstadt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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