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Spaeri vs Dila Gori Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Spaeri

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Dila Gori

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.9%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-113.1%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.9%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 30.3% 3.30 +30.0%

Draw 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

Away win 27.3% 50.0% 2.00 -45.4%

Over 2.5 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Over 3.5 15.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

H 39% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1✓ 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.2

Dila Gori0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 1.00

DILA GORI · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 39.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +30.0%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +3.2%

Dila Gori (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Dila Gori in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Dila Gori 27%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Spaeri and 0.9 for Dila Gori (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Dila Gori. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Spaeri vs Dila Gori Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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