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Neftci vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Neftci

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Qarabag

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-113.2%0-28.8%0-33.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.7%2-16.3%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 28.2% 3.55 +1.2%

Draw 32.3% 29.9% 3.35 +8.2%

Away win 39.2% 52.4% 1.91 -25.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Over 3.5 20.5% 30.8% 3.25 -33.4%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 39% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftci1.0

Qarabag1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCI · PPG 1.38

QARABAG · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Neftci (H) 28.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.2%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +8.2%

Qarabag (A) 39.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftci face Qarabag in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftci a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Qarabag 39%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Neftci and 1.3 for Qarabag (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftci are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.17 for Qarabag. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-5.

Neftci vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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