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FSV Frankfurt vs Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

FSV Frankfurt

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Homburg

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.2%0-27.2%0-34.2%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.8%1-29.4%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-17.0%2-26.1%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 42.6% 2.35 -32.3%

Draw 23.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.1%

Away win 47.8% 40.8% 2.45 +17.1%

Over 2.5 58.9% 67.6% 1.48 -12.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

BTTS 60.2% 70.4% 1.42 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.2%

A 48% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 8.2%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Frankfurt1.3

Homburg1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV FRANKFURT · PPG 1.36

HOMBURG · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Frankfurt (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -32.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.1%

Homburg (A) 47.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Frankfurt face Homburg in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Frankfurt a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Homburg 48%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FSV Frankfurt and 1.7 for Homburg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Frankfurt are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.64 for Homburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 1-1.

FSV Frankfurt vs Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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