FSV Frankfurt vs Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest Südwest - 29 PSD Bank Arena· Frankfurt Friday, April 17, 2026 17:00

FSV Frankfurt PPG 1.36

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Homburg PPG 1.64

Away· +17.1% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Frankfurt face Homburg in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Frankfurt a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Homburg 48%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FSV Frankfurt and 1.7 for Homburg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Frankfurt are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.64 for Homburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.8%

Odds: 2.35 EV: -32.3%

Draw 23.4%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -11.1%

Away 47.8%

Odds: 2.45 EV: +17.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.9% Odds: 1.48 -12.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% Odds: 2.20 -19.7%

BTTS 60.2% Odds: 1.42 -14.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FSV Frankfurt

1.31

Homburg

1.75

Model SuggestionBTTS -14.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-14.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5/Under 68%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -39.7%

Bet Hit 42% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away GOOD (1.64)