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Mirandes vs Leonesa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:15

Mirandes

PPG 0.94 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leonesa

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.5%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.3%1-111.9%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 47.2% 2.12 -1.8%

Draw 28.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.2%

Away win 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Over 2.5 50.7% 54.1% 1.85 -6.2%

Over 3.5 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

BTTS 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1✓ 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirandes1.6

Leonesa1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRANDES · PPG 0.94

LEONESA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Mirandes (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -1.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.2%

Leonesa (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirandes face Leonesa in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirandes a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Leonesa 25%, so Mirandes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mirandes and 1.1 for Leonesa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirandes are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Leonesa. This match finished 2-1.

Mirandes vs Leonesa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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