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Granada vs Almeria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:15

Granada

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Almeria

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.4%1-19.8%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 33.8% 2.96 +24.9%

Draw 29.1% 31.7% 3.15 -8.3%

Away win 28.8% 41.7% 2.40 -30.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 56.5% 1.77 +4.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 34.7% 2.88 +23.5%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Granada1.8

Almeria1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GRANADA · PPG 1.44

ALMERIA · PPG 1.28

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Granada (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +24.9%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.3%

Almeria (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Granada face Almeria in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Granada a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Almeria 29%, so Granada are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Granada and 1.5 for Almeria (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Granada are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.28 for Almeria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Granada vs Almeria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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