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Zwickau vs BFC Preussen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Zwickau

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

BFC Preussen

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.0%0-24.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.5%1-111.3%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.9%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 54.6% 1.83 -19.1%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 31.5% 27.4% 3.65 +15.0%

Over 2.5 56.5% 58.8% 1.70 -4.0%

Over 3.5 34.1% 36.4% 2.75 -6.2%

BTTS 58.9% 62.5% 1.60 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.9%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0✓ 8.5%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zwickau1.6

BFC Preussen1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ZWICKAU · PPG 2.29

BFC PREUSSEN · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=44.2%

Win probability 1X2

Zwickau (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

BFC Preussen (A) 31.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zwickau face BFC Preussen in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zwickau a 44% chance, the draw 24% and BFC Preussen 32%, so Zwickau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zwickau and 1.3 for BFC Preussen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zwickau are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.36 for BFC Preussen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Zwickau vs BFC Preussen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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