Tarazona vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Group 2 - 34 Municipal de Tarazona· Tarazona Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:00

Tarazona PPG 1.69

0-0 HIT CS4

Torremolinos PPG 0.88

Over2.5· +10.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tarazona face Torremolinos in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tarazona a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Torremolinos 23%, so Tarazona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tarazona and 0.8 for Torremolinos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tarazona are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.88 for Torremolinos. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.1%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -6.2%

Draw 29.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -8.9%

Away 22.5%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -14.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 23.1% Odds: 4.00 -7.6%

BTTS 52.5% Odds: 1.90 -0.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✔

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Tarazona

1.66

Torremolinos

0.79

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -0.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+10.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5/Under 46%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 65.2%

Bet Hit 69% (13 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=48.1%