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Tarazona vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Tarazona

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Torremolinos

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.8%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.3%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.2%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Draw 29.4% 32.3% 3.10 -8.9%

Away win 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -14.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 23.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.6%

BTTS 52.5% 52.6% 1.90 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0✓ 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tarazona1.7

Torremolinos0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TARAZONA · PPG 1.69

TORREMOLINOS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Tarazona (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.2%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.9%

Torremolinos (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tarazona face Torremolinos in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tarazona a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Torremolinos 23%, so Tarazona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tarazona and 0.8 for Torremolinos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tarazona are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.88 for Torremolinos. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Tarazona vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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