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Sevilla FC B vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Sevilla FC B

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Algeciras

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.2%0-115.2%0-25.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.5%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.5%2-15.1%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.0%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 29.9% 3.35 +29.3%

Draw 33.7% 34.7% 2.88 -2.9%

Away win 27.6% 45.5% 2.20 -39.3%

Over 2.5 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

Over 3.5 6.7% 22.2% 4.50 -69.8%

BTTS 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.6%

H 39% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.2%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 15.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla FC B0.8

Algeciras0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 6.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA FC B · PPG 1.06

ALGECIRAS · PPG 0.81

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla FC B (H) 38.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +29.3%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -2.9%

Algeciras (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla FC B face Algeciras in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla FC B a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Algeciras 28%, so Sevilla FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sevilla FC B and 0.7 for Algeciras (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla FC B are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.81 for Algeciras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Sevilla FC B vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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