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Marbella vs Sabadell Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Marbella

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Sabadell

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-116.1%0-29.1%0-33.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.7%1-113.2%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-04.8%2-15.4%2-23.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.3%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -11.0%

Draw 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

Away win 38.6% 44.4% 2.25 -13.2%

Over 2.5 38.0% 43.5% 2.30 -12.6%

Over 3.5 13.4% 23.8% 4.20 -43.7%

BTTS 49.5% 52.4% 1.91 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1✓ 16.1%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marbella0.8

Sabadell1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBELLA · PPG 1.40

SABADELL · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Marbella (H) 28.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.0%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.2%

Sabadell (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marbella face Sabadell in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marbella a 29% chance, the draw 33% and Sabadell 39%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Marbella and 1.1 for Sabadell (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marbella are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.69 for Sabadell. This match finished 0-1.

Marbella vs Sabadell Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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