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Hercules vs Teruel Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Hercules

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Teruel

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-19.5%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-111.2%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-16.6%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.0%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Draw 31.4% 33.9% 2.95 -7.4%

Away win 21.8% 28.2% 3.55 -22.6%

Over 2.5 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

Over 3.5 9.3% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.3%

#2 1–0 21.6%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hercules1.2

Teruel0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 9.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HERCULES · PPG 2.06

TERUEL · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

Hercules (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.7%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -7.4%

Teruel (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hercules face Teruel in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hercules a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Teruel 22%, so Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hercules and 0.5 for Teruel (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hercules are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.19 for Teruel. This match finished 3-1.

Hercules vs Teruel Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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