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H. Zehlendorf vs Chemnitzer FC Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

H. Zehlendorf

PPG 0.64 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Chemnitzer FC

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 73.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+31.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-110.7%0-212.5%0-39.8%0-4+9.9%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.3%1-37.3%1-4+7.4%2 2-01.3%2-13.0%2-23.5%2-32.7%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.1% 26.7% 3.75 -62.1%

Draw 16.8% 27.4% 3.65 -38.7%

Away win 73.1% 55.6% 1.80 +31.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

BTTS 47.5% 62.5% 1.60 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob47.5%

A 73% / xG 0.7-2.3 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.5%

#2 0–1 10.7%

#3 0–3 9.8%

#4 1–2✓ 9.3%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

H. Zehlendorf0.7

Chemnitzer FC2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

H. ZEHLENDORF · PPG 0.64

CHEMNITZER FC · PPG 0.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.64), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

H. Zehlendorf (H) 10.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -62.1%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -38.7%

Chemnitzer FC (A) 73.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

H. Zehlendorf face Chemnitzer FC in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives H. Zehlendorf a 10% chance, the draw 17% and Chemnitzer FC 73%, so Chemnitzer FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for H. Zehlendorf and 2.3 for Chemnitzer FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, H. Zehlendorf are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.86 for Chemnitzer FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 1-2.

H. Zehlendorf vs Chemnitzer FC Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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