Leverkusen W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Germany - Frauen Bundesliga Regular Season - 23 Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion· Leverkusen Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:00

Leverkusen W PPG 1.91

4-1 MISS

Freiburg W PPG 0.70

Away· +97.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen W face Freiburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen W a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Freiburg W 33%, so Leverkusen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leverkusen W and 1.6 for Freiburg W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen W are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.70 for Freiburg W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +97.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.6%

Odds: 1.40 EV: -47.4%

Draw 29.6%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +18.4%

Away 32.9%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +97.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 39.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.67 -2.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Leverkusen W

1.61

Freiburg W

1.57

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+97.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.91) vs P(Home)=37.6%