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Leverkusen W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Leverkusen W

PPG 1.91 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiburg W

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.5%0-25.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.7%1-110.5%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 71.4% 1.40 -47.4%

Draw 29.6% 25.0% 4.00 +18.4%

Away win 32.9% 16.7% 6.00 +97.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leverkusen W1.6

Freiburg W1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 1.91

FREIBURG W · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.91) vs P(Home)=37.6%

Win probability 1X2

Leverkusen W (H) 37.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -47.4%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +18.4%

Freiburg W (A) 32.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +97.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen W face Freiburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen W a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Freiburg W 33%, so Leverkusen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leverkusen W and 1.6 for Freiburg W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen W are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.70 for Freiburg W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +97.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Leverkusen W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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