Carl Zeiss Jena vs Greifswald Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost Nordost - 30 Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld· Jena Friday, April 17, 2026 17:00

Carl Zeiss Jena PPG 2.36

2-1 HIT CS4

Greifswald PPG 0.93

Home· -6.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Carl Zeiss Jena face Greifswald in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carl Zeiss Jena a 64% chance, the draw 23% and Greifswald 14%, so Carl Zeiss Jena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carl Zeiss Jena and 0.7 for Greifswald (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carl Zeiss Jena are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.93 for Greifswald. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.5%

Odds: 1.48 EV: -6.0%

Draw 22.8%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -11.1%

Away 13.7%

Odds: 6.00 EV: -17.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.2% Odds: 1.62 -30.0%

Over 3.5 22.3% Odds: 2.50 -44.3%

BTTS 40.0% Odds: 1.67 -33.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.75

Greifswald

0.66

Model SuggestionHome -6.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -6.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 67% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=63.5%