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Carl Zeiss Jena vs Greifswald Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Carl Zeiss Jena

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Greifswald

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.0%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.7%1-110.4%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.0%3-15.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Draw 22.8% 25.6% 3.90 -11.1%

Away win 13.7% 16.7% 6.00 -17.8%

Over 2.5 43.2% 61.7% 1.62 -30.0%

Over 3.5 22.3% 40.0% 2.50 -44.3%

BTTS 40.0% 59.9% 1.67 -33.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.0%

H 64% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 2–1✓ 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carl Zeiss Jena1.7

Greifswald0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CARL ZEISS JENA · PPG 2.36

GREIFSWALD · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=63.5%

Win probability 1X2

Carl Zeiss Jena (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -6.0%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.1%

Greifswald (A) 13.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carl Zeiss Jena face Greifswald in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carl Zeiss Jena a 64% chance, the draw 23% and Greifswald 14%, so Carl Zeiss Jena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carl Zeiss Jena and 0.7 for Greifswald (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carl Zeiss Jena are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.93 for Greifswald. This match finished 2-1.

Carl Zeiss Jena vs Greifswald Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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