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HB Koge vs Aalborg BK Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

HB Koge

PPG 1.54 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.6%0-26.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.4%1-19.9%1-29.0%1-35.5%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.7%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 40.7% 2.46 -15.6%

Draw 28.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.1%

Away win 37.5% 39.1% 2.56 -4.0%

Over 2.5 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 42.4% 37.7% 2.65 +12.4%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB Koge1.5

Aalborg BK1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HB KOGE · PPG 1.54

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.54) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

HB Koge (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -15.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.1%

Aalborg BK (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HB Koge face Aalborg BK in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB Koge a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Aalborg BK 38%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for HB Koge and 1.8 for Aalborg BK (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB Koge are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.23 for Aalborg BK. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 1-1.

HB Koge vs Aalborg BK Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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