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Rijeka vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Rijeka

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hajduk Split

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.6%0-27.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 39.4% 2.54 -9.8%

Draw 32.1% 31.7% 3.15 +1.1%

Away win 32.5% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 23.0% 28.2% 3.55 -18.4%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rijeka1.1

Hajduk Split1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RIJEKA · PPG 1.67

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.87)

Win probability 1X2

Rijeka (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -9.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +1.1%

Hajduk Split (A) 32.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijeka face Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijeka a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Hajduk Split 33%, so Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rijeka and 1.3 for Hajduk Split (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijeka are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.87 for Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Rijeka vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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