Rijeka vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 32 Stadion HNK Rijeka· Rijeka Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:00

Rijeka PPG 1.67

0-0 HIT CS2

Hajduk Split PPG 1.87

Draw· +1.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijeka face Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijeka a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Hajduk Split 33%, so Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rijeka and 1.3 for Hajduk Split (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijeka are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.87 for Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.5%

Odds: 2.54 EV: -9.8%

Draw 32.1%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +1.1%

Away 32.5%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -13.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 23.0% Odds: 3.55 -18.4%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.73 -9.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rijeka

1.10

Hajduk Split

1.33

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.87)