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Rangers vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Rangers

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Motherwell

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.8%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-110.7%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.1%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 65.4% 1.53 -28.8%

Draw 28.4% 23.3% 4.30 +22.1%

Away win 25.0% 18.5% 5.40 +35.0%

Over 2.5 57.2% 64.5% 1.55 -11.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 42.6% 2.35 -26.0%

BTTS 57.8% 61.7% 1.62 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rangers1.8

Motherwell1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RANGERS · PPG 2.24

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.19

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs P(Home)=46.5%

Win probability 1X2

Rangers (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -28.8%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +22.1%

Motherwell (A) 25.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rangers face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rangers a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Motherwell 25%, so Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rangers and 1.0 for Motherwell (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rangers are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 1.19 for Motherwell. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Rangers vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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