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Babelsberg vs Luckenwalde Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Babelsberg

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Luckenwalde

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.6%0-25.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.5%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 51.3% 1.95 -27.1%

Draw 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -13.4%

Away win 38.2% 30.3% 3.30 +26.1%

Over 2.5 57.4% 57.8% 1.73 -0.7%

Over 3.5 35.0% 35.1% 2.85 -0.3%

BTTS 60.1% 62.5% 1.60 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.1%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Babelsberg1.5

Luckenwalde1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BABELSBERG · PPG 0.93

LUCKENWALDE · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Babelsberg (H) 37.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.4%

Luckenwalde (A) 38.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Babelsberg face Luckenwalde in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Babelsberg a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Luckenwalde 38%, so Luckenwalde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Babelsberg and 1.5 for Luckenwalde (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Babelsberg are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.21 for Luckenwalde. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Babelsberg vs Luckenwalde Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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