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Primorje vs Radomlje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Primorje

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Radomlje

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.2%0-26.4%0-34.4%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.3%1-19.0%1-29.2%1-36.4%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.6%2-34.6%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.5%3-13.1%3-23.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 48.1% 2.08 -42.6%

Draw 28.6% 28.6% 3.50 +0.1%

Away win 43.8% 32.3% 3.10 +35.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 62.5% 1.60 -3.2%

Over 3.5 46.3% 40.0% 2.50 +15.8%

BTTS 58.5% 67.6% 1.48 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 60.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Primorje1.4

Radomlje2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PRIMORJE · PPG 1.36

RADOMLJE · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Primorje (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -42.6%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.1%

Radomlje (A) 43.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Primorje face Radomlje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Primorje a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Radomlje 44%, so Radomlje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Primorje and 2.1 for Radomlje (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Primorje are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.14 for Radomlje. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Primorje vs Radomlje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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