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Tre Penne vs San Giovanni Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Tre Penne

PPG 2.29 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Giovanni

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-12.3%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-15.4%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.1%2-16.2%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.7%3-14.8%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-14.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 7.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.9% — — —

Over 3.5 27.5% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 71% / xG 2.3-0.3 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 19.1%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 3–0 14.7%

#4 4–0✓ 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tre Penne2.3

San Giovanni0.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TRE PENNE · PPG 2.29

SAN GIOVANNI · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tre Penne (H) 70.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Giovanni (A) 7.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tre Penne face San Giovanni in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tre Penne a 71% chance, the draw 22% and San Giovanni 7%, so Tre Penne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tre Penne and 0.3 for San Giovanni (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tre Penne are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.79 for San Giovanni. This match finished 4-0.

Tre Penne vs San Giovanni Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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