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Cosmos vs Faetano Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Cosmos

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Faetano

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.79)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-17.0%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.4%1-19.1%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-15.9%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.8%3-12.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% — — —

Draw 32.2% — — —

Away win 16.6% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 8.9% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.4%

#2 0–0 18.8%

#3 2–0✓ 15.8%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cosmos1.3

Faetano0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COSMOS · PPG 1.36

FAETANO · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Cosmos (H) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Faetano (A) 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cosmos face Faetano in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cosmos a 51% chance, the draw 32% and Faetano 17%, so Cosmos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cosmos and 0.4 for Faetano (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cosmos are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.79 for Faetano. This match finished 2-0.

Cosmos vs Faetano Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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