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Fiorentino vs La Fiorita Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Fiorentino

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

La Fiorita

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-113.6%0-213.3%0-38.6%0-4+6.6%1 1-04.9%1-19.7%1-29.5%1-36.2%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.8%2-13.4%2-23.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 18.2% 5.50 -30.1%

Draw 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -13.9%

Away win 66.7% 69.4% 1.44 -4.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% — — —

BTTS 43.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob43.8%

A 67% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.6%

#2 0–2 13.3%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 1–2✓ 9.5%

#5 0–3 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentino0.7

La Fiorita2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINO · PPG 1.21

LA FIORITA · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentino (H) 12.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -30.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -13.9%

La Fiorita (A) 66.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentino face La Fiorita in San-Marino - Campionato on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentino a 13% chance, the draw 21% and La Fiorita 67%, so La Fiorita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Fiorentino and 2.0 for La Fiorita (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentino are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 2.07 for La Fiorita. This match finished 1-2.

Fiorentino vs La Fiorita Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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