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Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Tre Fiori

PPG 2.62 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pennarossa

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.62), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-11.2%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-13.4%1-20.5%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.1%2-15.0%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.7%3-14.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-025.2%4+-17.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.0% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 6.9% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 40.3% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 73% / xG 2.9-0.3 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.1%

#2 3–0 16.7%

#3 4–0 12.2%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 5–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tre Fiori2.9

Pennarossa0.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRE FIORI · PPG 2.62

PENNAROSSA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.62), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tre Fiori (H) 73.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pennarossa (A) 6.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tre Fiori face Pennarossa in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tre Fiori a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Pennarossa 7%, so Tre Fiori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Tre Fiori and 0.3 for Pennarossa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tre Fiori are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.07 for Pennarossa. This match finished 1-1.

Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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