Faetano vs Tre Fiori Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

San-Marino - Campionato Regular Season - 29 Campo Faetano Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Faetano PPG 0.79

0-1 HIT CS4

Tre Fiori PPG 2.29

Over2.5· +2.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Faetano face Tre Fiori in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Faetano a 2% chance, the draw 8% and Tre Fiori 91%, so Tre Fiori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Faetano and 2.9 for Tre Fiori (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 21% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Faetano are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 2.29 for Tre Fiori. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 1.7%

Odds: 21.00 EV: -64.3%

Draw 7.8%

Odds: 8.00 EV: -37.6%

Away 90.5%

Odds: 1.10 EV: -0.4%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.0% Odds: 1.65 +2.3%

Over 3.5 39.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 21.4% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-3 ✘

3rd 0-4 ✘

4th 0-1 ✔

5th 0-5 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Faetano

0.26

Tre Fiori

2.94

Model SuggestionAway -0.4% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.4%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 57%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home POOR (0.79)