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Faetano vs Tre Fiori Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Faetano

PPG 0.79 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Tre Fiori

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 90.5% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-112.0%0-217.7%0-317.3%0-4+26.3%1 1-01.0%1-13.1%1-24.5%1-34.4%1-4+6.7%2 2-00.1%2-10.4%2-20.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 1.7% 4.8% 21.00 -64.3%

Draw 7.8% 12.5% 8.00 -37.6%

Away win 90.5% 90.9% 1.10 -0.4%

Over 2.5 62.0% 60.6% 1.65 +2.3%

Over 3.5 39.7% — — —

BTTS 21.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob21.4%

A 90% / xG 0.3-2.9 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 21%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 17.7%

#2 0–3 17.3%

#3 0–4 12.8%

#4 0–1✓ 12.0%

#5 0–5 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Faetano0.3

Tre Fiori2.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FAETANO · PPG 0.79

TRE FIORI · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Faetano (H) 1.7%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV -64.3%

Draw 7.8%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -37.6%

Tre Fiori (A) 90.5%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Faetano face Tre Fiori in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Faetano a 2% chance, the draw 8% and Tre Fiori 91%, so Tre Fiori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Faetano and 2.9 for Tre Fiori (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 21% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Faetano are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 2.29 for Tre Fiori. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Faetano vs Tre Fiori Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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