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Folgore vs SM Academy Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Folgore

PPG 1.86 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

SM Academy

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in GOOD form (1.86), Away POOR (0.64) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.8%1-14.7%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.0%2-17.2%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.3%3-17.4%3-22.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.3%4+-112.2%4+-23.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 85.8% — — —

Draw 9.8% — — —

Away win 4.4% — — —

Over 2.5 71.1% — — —

Over 3.5 50.1% — — —

BTTS 43.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.0%

H 86% / xG 3.1-0.6 / O2.5 71% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 12.3%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 4–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Folgore3.1

SM Academy0.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 50.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FOLGORE · PPG 1.86

SM ACADEMY · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.86), Away POOR (0.64) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Folgore (H) 85.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 9.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SM Academy (A) 4.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Folgore face SM Academy in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Folgore a 86% chance, the draw 10% and SM Academy 4%, so Folgore are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Folgore and 0.6 for SM Academy (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Folgore are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.64 for SM Academy. This match finished 3-0.

Folgore vs SM Academy Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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