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Libertas vs Virtus Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Libertas

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 9

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Virtus

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-18.6%0-212.8%0-312.8%0-4+19.8%1 1-01.6%1-14.8%1-27.2%1-37.2%1-4+11.2%2 2-00.5%2-11.4%2-22.0%2-32.0%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 71.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-9

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob49.5%

A 72% / xG 0.6-3.0 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 0–3 12.8%

#3 0–4 9.5%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertas0.6

Virtus3.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAS · PPG 1.43

VIRTUS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Libertas (H) 4.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Virtus (A) 71.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertas face Virtus in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertas a 5% chance, the draw 24% and Virtus 72%, so Virtus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Libertas and 3.0 for Virtus (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertas are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Virtus. This match finished 0-9.

Libertas vs Virtus Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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