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Cailungo vs Virtus Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Cailungo

PPG 0.21 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Virtus

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.92) vs Home POOR (0.21)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-17.1%0-212.5%0-314.8%0-4+32.4%1 1-00.7%1-12.6%1-24.7%1-35.5%1-4+12.1%2 2-00.1%2-10.5%2-20.9%2-31.0%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 1.6% — — —

Draw 5.7% — — —

Away win 92.7% — — —

Over 2.5 74.8% — — —

Over 3.5 54.9% — — —

BTTS 30.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 88%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob30.2%

A 93% / xG 0.4-3.5 / O2.5 75% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 14.8%

#2 0–4 13.1%

#3 0–2 12.5%

#4 0–5 9.2%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cailungo0.4

Virtus3.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.8% · O3.5 PROB 54.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CAILUNGO · PPG 0.21

VIRTUS · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.92) vs Home POOR (0.21)

Win probability 1X2

Cailungo (H) 1.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 5.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Virtus (A) 92.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cailungo face Virtus in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cailungo a 2% chance, the draw 6% and Virtus 93%, so Virtus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Cailungo and 3.5 for Virtus (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cailungo are averaging 0.21 points per game versus 1.92 for Virtus. This match finished 1-6.

Cailungo vs Virtus Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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