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SM Academy vs Cailungo Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

SM Academy

PPG 0.43 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Cailungo

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.9%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 27.4% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 48.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Academy1.4

Cailungo1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SM ACADEMY · PPG 0.43

CAILUNGO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.43), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

SM Academy (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cailungo (A) 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Academy face Cailungo in San-Marino - Campionato on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Academy a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Cailungo 27%, so SM Academy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SM Academy and 1.0 for Cailungo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Academy are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.50 for Cailungo. This match finished 1-1.

SM Academy vs Cailungo Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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