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Dziugas Telsiai vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Zalgiris

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-18.3%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.3%1-111.8%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.4%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-14.0%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% — — —

Draw 31.3% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 16.3% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai1.4

Zalgiris0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.50

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zalgiris (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Zalgiris 22%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dziugas Telsiai and 0.7 for Zalgiris (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Zalgiris. This match finished 0-3.

Dziugas Telsiai vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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