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Sancataldese vs Vigor Lamezia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sancataldese

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vigor Lamezia

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away POOR (0.94)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-112.1%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 32.8% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sancataldese1.1

Vigor Lamezia1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANCATALDESE · PPG 1.19

VIGOR LAMEZIA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Sancataldese (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vigor Lamezia (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sancataldese face Vigor Lamezia in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sancataldese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Vigor Lamezia 30%, so Sancataldese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sancataldese and 1.1 for Vigor Lamezia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sancataldese are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.94 for Vigor Lamezia. This match finished 1-1.

Sancataldese vs Vigor Lamezia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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