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Paterno PPG 1.06 
CastrumFavara PPG 0.63
Paterno vs CastrumFavara Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I
Paterno PPG 1.061-3 MISS
CastrumFavara PPG 0.63 ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Preview & Prediction
Paterno face CastrumFavara in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paterno a 30% chance, the draw 32% and CastrumFavara 38%, so CastrumFavara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Paterno and 1.3 for CastrumFavara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paterno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.63 for CastrumFavara. This match finished 1-3.
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: — —
Over 3.5 21.0% Odds: — —
BTTS 52.6% Odds: — —
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 0-1 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 0-2 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Paterno 1.03
CastrumFavara 1.32
Model Suggestion
BTTS MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 28 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 54%
O2.5/Under 61%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 57%
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
MODERATE_HOME 52%
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.63)