Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone I / Paterno vs CastrumFavara

Paterno vs CastrumFavara Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Paterno

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CastrumFavara

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.63)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-112.6%0-28.3%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.1%2-16.7%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% — — —

Draw 31.6% — — —

Away win 38.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paterno1.0

CastrumFavara1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PATERNO · PPG 1.06

CASTRUMFAVARA · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Paterno (H) 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CastrumFavara (A) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paterno face CastrumFavara in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paterno a 30% chance, the draw 32% and CastrumFavara 38%, so CastrumFavara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Paterno and 1.3 for CastrumFavara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paterno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.63 for CastrumFavara. This match finished 1-3.

Paterno vs CastrumFavara Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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