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Igea Virtus vs ACR Messina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Igea Virtus

PPG 2.07 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

ACR Messina

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-15.8%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.8%1-19.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-14.5%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-12.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.8% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 2–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–1✓ 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Igea Virtus1.7

ACR Messina0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IGEA VIRTUS · PPG 2.07

ACR MESSINA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Igea Virtus (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ACR Messina (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Igea Virtus face ACR Messina in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Igea Virtus a 57% chance, the draw 28% and ACR Messina 16%, so Igea Virtus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Igea Virtus and 0.5 for ACR Messina (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Igea Virtus are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.25 for ACR Messina. This match finished 1-1.

Igea Virtus vs ACR Messina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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