Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone I / Gela vs Vibonese

Gela vs Vibonese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Gela

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vibonese

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.6%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-19.4%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.6%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 18.2% — — —

Over 2.5 58.0% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gela2.1

Vibonese0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GELA · PPG 1.81

VIBONESE · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

Gela (H) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vibonese (A) 18.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gela face Vibonese in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gela a 56% chance, the draw 26% and Vibonese 18%, so Gela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Gela and 0.8 for Vibonese (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gela are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.93 for Vibonese. This match finished 1-1.

Gela vs Vibonese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone I Predictions