Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone I / Enna vs Gelbison

Enna vs Gelbison Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Enna

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gelbison

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.1%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% — — —

Draw 30.7% — — —

Away win 30.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 33.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enna1.6

Gelbison1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ENNA · PPG 1.44

GELBISON · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.44) vs Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Enna (H) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gelbison (A) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Enna face Gelbison in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enna a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Gelbison 30%, so Enna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Enna and 1.3 for Gelbison (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enna are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.88 for Gelbison. This match finished 0-1.

Enna vs Gelbison Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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