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Gloggnitz vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 27 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Gloggnitz

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Oberwart

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=35.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.9%0-25.2%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.4%1-19.6%1-28.5%1-35.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -15.3%

Away win 41.5% 34.7% 2.88 +19.5%

Over 2.5 66.2% 63.7% 1.57 +3.9%

Over 3.5 44.4% — — —

BTTS 66.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.8%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gloggnitz1.6

Oberwart1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GLOGGNITZ · PPG 2.50

OBERWART · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=35.9%

Win probability 1X2

Gloggnitz (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.3%

Oberwart (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gloggnitz face Oberwart in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gloggnitz a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Oberwart 42%, so Oberwart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gloggnitz and 1.8 for Oberwart (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gloggnitz are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.18 for Oberwart. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Gloggnitz vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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