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Rizespor vs Gaziantep Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Monday, April 13, 2026

Rizespor

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gaziantep

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.2%1-18.9%1-26.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Draw 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -19.8%

Away win 26.1% 22.7% 4.40 +14.8%

Over 2.5 68.1% 60.6% 1.65 +12.4%

Over 3.5 46.5% 38.5% 2.60 +20.9%

BTTS 66.5% 62.5% 1.60 +6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.5%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rizespor2.1

Gaziantep1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIZESPOR · PPG 1.43

GAZIANTEP · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Rizespor (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.8%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.8%

Gaziantep (A) 26.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rizespor face Gaziantep in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rizespor a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Gaziantep 26%, so Rizespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Rizespor and 1.4 for Gaziantep (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rizespor are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.21 for Gaziantep. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%.

Rizespor vs Gaziantep Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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