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Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Antalyaspor

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Kocaelispor

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.5%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.3%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 66.2% 1.51 -44.1%

Draw 29.8% 25.6% 3.90 +9.7%

Away win 33.3% 15.4% 6.50 +116.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 16.2% 30.8% 3.25 -28.4%

BTTS 49.2% 51.8% 1.93 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0✓ 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antalyaspor1.1

Kocaelispor1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTALYASPOR · PPG 1.00

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Antalyaspor (H) 37.0%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -44.1%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +9.7%

Kocaelispor (A) 33.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +116.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antalyaspor face Kocaelispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antalyaspor a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Kocaelispor 33%, so Antalyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Antalyaspor and 1.0 for Kocaelispor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Kocaelispor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +116.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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