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Besiktas vs Trabzonspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Besiktas

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Trabzonspor

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.0%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.5%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 47.2% 2.12 -19.7%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -2.3%

Away win 36.1% 32.8% 3.05 +10.1%

Over 2.5 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Over 3.5 31.9% 41.7% 2.40 -23.4%

BTTS 58.8% 67.6% 1.48 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2✓ 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Besiktas1.5

Trabzonspor1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BESIKTAS · PPG 1.94

TRABZONSPOR · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Besiktas (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -19.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.3%

Trabzonspor (A) 36.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Besiktas face Trabzonspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Besiktas a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Trabzonspor 36%, so Besiktas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Besiktas and 1.4 for Trabzonspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Besiktas are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 2.06 for Trabzonspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Besiktas vs Trabzonspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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