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Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Fenerbahce

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Eyupspor

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

Home 74% chance

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.8%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-18.4%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-16.9%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-16.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 79.4% 1.26 -21.6%

Draw 22.5% 16.9% 5.90 +19.7%

Away win 15.2% 10.8% 9.30 +24.8%

Over 2.5 59.1% 72.5% 1.38 -18.4%

Over 3.5 33.4% 50.0% 2.00 -33.2%

BTTS 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.2%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 3–0 9.7%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenerbahce2.2

Eyupspor0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FENERBAHCE · PPG 2.38

EYUPSPOR · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

74%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=62.2%

Win probability 1X2

Fenerbahce (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -21.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +19.7%

Eyupspor (A) 15.2%

ODDS 9.30 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahce face Eyupspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahce a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Eyupspor 15%, so Fenerbahce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fenerbahce and 0.7 for Eyupspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahce are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.81 for Eyupspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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