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Trabzonspor vs Genclerbirligi Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Trabzonspor

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Genclerbirligi

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home 39% chance

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 32.3% — a clear edge.

+70.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.3%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-110.0%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 32.3% 3.10 +70.2%

Draw 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.0%

Away win 20.1% 47.2% 2.12 -34.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 27.2% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trabzonspor1.9

Genclerbirligi0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TRABZONSPOR · PPG 2.06

GENCLERBIRLIGI · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

39%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=54.9%

Win probability 1X2

Trabzonspor (H) 54.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +70.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.0%

Genclerbirligi (A) 20.1%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trabzonspor face Genclerbirligi in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trabzonspor a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Genclerbirligi 20%, so Trabzonspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Trabzonspor and 0.7 for Genclerbirligi (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trabzonspor are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.38 for Genclerbirligi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Trabzonspor vs Genclerbirligi Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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