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Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Alanyaspor

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kayserispor

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

Home 47% chance

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-17.4%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.5%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 45.0% 2.22 +13.2%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 22.6% 33.6% 2.98 -19.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Over 3.5 19.1% 33.3% 3.00 -25.6%

BTTS 48.2% 61.7% 1.62 -21.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alanyaspor1.5

Kayserispor0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALANYASPOR · PPG 1.25

KAYSERISPOR · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Alanyaspor (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +13.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Kayserispor (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alanyaspor face Kayserispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alanyaspor a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Kayserispor 23%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alanyaspor and 0.7 for Kayserispor (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alanyaspor are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.69 for Kayserispor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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