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Kasimpasa vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Kasimpasa

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Galatasaray

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Away 49% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 43.9% — a clear edge.

+40.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-112.7%0-212.4%0-38.0%0-4+6.1%1 1-05.1%1-110.0%1-29.7%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.0%2-13.9%2-23.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 34.5% 2.90 -35.3%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 61.5% 43.9% 2.28 +40.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 29.1% 35.7% 2.80 -11.1%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.6%

A 62% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.4%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kasimpasa0.8

Galatasaray1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KASIMPASA · PPG 1.13

GALATASARAY · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

49%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Kasimpasa (H) 14.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -35.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Galatasaray (A) 61.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kasimpasa face Galatasaray in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kasimpasa a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Galatasaray 62%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kasimpasa and 1.9 for Galatasaray (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kasimpasa are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.13 for Galatasaray. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Kasimpasa vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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