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Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Galatasaray

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Antalyaspor

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 81% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-17.4%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-16.8%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-16.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 86.2% 1.16 -21.3%

Draw 22.8% 12.8% 7.80 +46.7%

Away win 9.4% 8.0% 12.50 +10.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 72.5% 1.38 -18.2%

Over 3.5 34.1% 51.3% 1.95 -33.5%

BTTS 48.2% 50.0% 2.00 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 68% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galatasaray2.4

Antalyaspor0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GALATASARAY · PPG 2.50

ANTALYASPOR · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

81%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.81) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Galatasaray (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -21.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +46.7%

Antalyaspor (A) 9.4%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galatasaray face Antalyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galatasaray a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Antalyaspor 9%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Galatasaray and 0.6 for Antalyaspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galatasaray are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.81 for Antalyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +46.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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