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Basaksehir vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Basaksehir

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Samsunspor

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.9%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.5%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 55.6% 1.80 -11.3%

Draw 25.6% 27.0% 3.70 -3.2%

Away win 25.1% 24.4% 4.10 +1.8%

Over 2.5 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.8%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basaksehir1.7

Samsunspor1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BASAKSEHIR · PPG 1.69

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Basaksehir (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.2%

Samsunspor (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Basaksehir face Samsunspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basaksehir a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Samsunspor 25%, so Basaksehir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Basaksehir and 1.0 for Samsunspor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basaksehir are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.44 for Samsunspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Basaksehir vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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