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V. Senigallia vs Chieti Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

V. Senigallia

PPG 1.44 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chieti

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-13.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.9%1-18.4%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-16.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-15.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. Senigallia2.1

Chieti0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

V. SENIGALLIA · PPG 1.44

CHIETI · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

V. Senigallia (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chieti (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Senigallia face Chieti in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Senigallia a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Chieti 16%, so V. Senigallia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for V. Senigallia and 0.6 for Chieti (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Senigallia are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.50 for Chieti. This match finished 2-3.

V. Senigallia vs Chieti Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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