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Sora vs Unipomezia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sora

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Unipomezia

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.5%0-26.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.8%1-112.5%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.3%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 32.6% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 26.5% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.8%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1✓ 8.3%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sora1.3

Unipomezia1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SORA · PPG 1.06

UNIPOMEZIA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sora (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Unipomezia (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sora face Unipomezia in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sora a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Unipomezia 30%, so Sora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sora and 1.3 for Unipomezia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sora are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Unipomezia. This match finished 2-1.

Sora vs Unipomezia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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