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Trevigliese vs Lentigione Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Trevigliese

PPG 0.56 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Lentigione

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-117.5%0-215.3%0-38.9%0-4+5.8%1 1-05.5%1-19.7%1-28.5%1-34.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-01.5%2-12.7%2-22.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 56.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 20.1% — — —

BTTS 48.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.9%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–2 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trevigliese0.6

Lentigione1.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TREVIGLIESE · PPG 0.56

LENTIGIONE · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Trevigliese (H) 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lentigione (A) 56.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trevigliese face Lentigione in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trevigliese a 14% chance, the draw 29% and Lentigione 57%, so Lentigione are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Trevigliese and 1.8 for Lentigione (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trevigliese are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 2.19 for Lentigione. This match finished 1-2.

Trevigliese vs Lentigione Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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