Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone D / SantAngelo vs Progresso

SantAngelo vs Progresso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

SantAngelo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Progresso

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.3%1-112.2%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 25.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SantAngelo1.5

Progresso1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTANGELO · PPG 1.50

PROGRESSO · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

SantAngelo (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Progresso (A) 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SantAngelo face Progresso in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SantAngelo a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Progresso 25%, so SantAngelo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SantAngelo and 1.1 for Progresso (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SantAngelo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.31 for Progresso. This match finished 1-1.

SantAngelo vs Progresso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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